Donald Trump and the Republicans won in a landslide, where Trump took all seven swing states and the Republican Party notched a long-sought victory for majority control of the US Senate.

It was a bit disturbing to watch various people on the losing side the next day talking online about how they wanted to kill everyone who voted for Trump. I mean, wow, talk about sore losers. I saw a video of a teacher who, screaming, called school security to his classroom because…wait for it…”There’s a student in here wearing a Trump hat”. Again, just…wow.

But what about gold and silver in the aftermath of the election? Well, I’ll take a look at both in depth, but let me go ahead and note a couple of things up front. First, I wasn’t at all surprised to see gold and silver down significantly the day after the election. The market obviously thinks that Trump being President will mean a stronger US dollar than what we might have had under a Harris Presidency. Second, I am, however, a little tiny bit surprised to see gold and silver still getting smacked pretty severely a week later. As of Tuesday morning, November 12^th, they’re still getting hammered a bit – gold down almost $20 an ounce and silver down another 15 cents on the day.

HOWEVER, one should note that silver is still above the key $30 per ounce support level, and gold is still about $100 above the price of $2,500 per ounce.

(The Usual Note: I’m scribbling up this technical analysis over the course of Tuesday through Thursday, November 12^th through the 14^th. Any significant price action that has occurred since then should (obviously) be taken into consideration as you do your own market analysis. And the Usual Disclaimer: The technical analysis presented here is solely my current perspective on the market. It might be insightful to the point of near brilliance…and it might be, well, pretty much the opposite of “brilliant”. Every investor should perform his or her own due diligence and market analysis. My technical analysis here is simply one man’s view of the market.)

Okay then – let’s pull up some futures charts and see what the precious metals market looks like, viewed through daily, weekly, and monthly price action lenses.

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Technical Analysis of Gold – Most Recent Price Action Since Mid-October

I’ll look at the gold charts today – November 13^th – and then see what’s going on with silver as of tomorrow – November 14^th.

As is my custom, I’ll start with a review of the daily gold futures chart, primarily focusing on – 

• The price action in gold over roughly the last 30 days
• Looking at where gold is, and has been, in relation to some key moving average technical indicators – such as the 20-day and the 50-day exponential moving averages

(Yet another usual note: My technical analysis is done looking at the nearby COMEX futures charts. There is always some slight difference between spot prices and the nearby futures prices. However, as I’m writing this on Tuesday morning, the spread difference between spot prices and nearby futures prices is very small. The spot price of gold is $2,599, and COMEX gold futures are trading at $2,604. The spot prices and futures prices for silver are nearly identical, at around $30.75.)

Gold futures price October 15^th: $2,667
Gold futures price November 13^th: $2,604

The price action in gold over the past month is pretty much an exact reversal of its September to October performance. From mid-September to mid-October, the gold futures price advanced from $2,609 to $2,667. After scoring a new all-time high at the end of October, just above the $2,800 per ounce price level, gold has since fallen back to around $2,600 - where it was in mid-September.

So, how is the daily gold futures chart looking in relation to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), represented by the blue line on the chart below?

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Well, it’s immediately obvious that gold has taken a bigger tumble below the 20-day moving average than we’ve seen in quite some time. I noted in last month’s technical analysis, “Going back over the last several months, there have been a few dips below the 20-period moving average, but they’ve been very short-lived – usually just a couple of days.” So, the current break below the 20-period EMA is both more extreme and further extended in time than any recent drawdowns in the price of gold.

Gold prices are nearly $100 below the 20-day EMA, which is back up close to the $2,700 level. Interestingly, even with the post-election down move in gold, the 20-day EMA has advanced – around mid-October, it was sitting around $2,650. Since the 20-day moving average is now substantially above the current price action, it may be viewed as a potential initial level of price resistance.

Before I try to pinpoint a possible price support level, I want to first switch over to looking at the 50-day EMA on the daily chart. Up until now, the price action in gold has been occurring at price levels that have consistently been substantially above the 50-day moving average. 

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Hmm…looks like the post-election drawdown in gold prices has also managed to take out the 50-day moving average, which is currently up around the $2,650 price level. Like the 20-day moving average, the 50-day EMA has also moved higher over the past month, advancing to its current level from around $2,590 a month ago – despite the fact that gold is currently down for the month. So, is last month’s 50-day EMA going to turn out to be a support level for gold? Or are we going to see a further decline, down to around $2,525 – the price level where gold prices consolidated during August and September? (Look just to the left of approximately the mid-point of the chart.)

I find the current look of the MACD on the daily chart fairly encouraging. It appears to indicate that any overbought levels in the gold market have been decisively taken out. In fact, the rather severe dip in the MACD histogram, if anything, suggests that gold may be, technically, a bit oversold at this point.

However, with the significant violation of both of these moving averages, I am forced to also confront the possibility that this may be the start of a long-term trend change – from uptrend to downtrend in the gold market. I’m certainly not going to pronounce such a change in the overall controlling trend based only on several days of price action in the immediate aftermath of the US Presidential election. I will, however, certainly be monitoring future price action for possible further indications of a major trend change.

But, for now, looking at the daily chart, I’m inclined to think that gold prices will most likely find some support either right around the current price level of about $2,600 – or somewhere between there and the $2,525-$2,550 price level that I pegged as a probable support level in my analysis last month.

Long-term Technical Analysis of Gold

All right, let’s bravely (or perhaps just recklessly) spin the lens of our technical analysis microscope over onto the weekly chart – showing the price action in gold all the way back to early in 2023. I’ll flip the moving average back to a 20-period EMA.

Interesting… Unlike the action on the daily chart, the 20-period moving average on the weekly chart – currently sitting at about $2,580 – has not been violated thus far. So, the weekly chart is indicating the overall long-term uptrend as still being intact. And, in fact, the 20-week EMA has moved up over the past 30 days, rising from around $2,520 to its current level about $50 higher.

Should the price of gold continue falling, I’m looking, on the weekly chart, at possible support around the $2,525 level – where price briefly consolidated in September – or further down around the more extended price consolidation level around $2,350 to $2,400 that occurred in April-June this year.

But if I had to bet a dollar one way or the other, I’d say it’s more likely for gold to find support around its current price level than it is for it to fall that far below the $2,500 level. But that’s only betting a dollar. I wouldn’t bet a hundred thousand.

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Taking a look at the MACD on the weekly chart doesn’t, however, give me the same bullish hopes as the MACD on the daily chart did. The MACD signal line has only just turned to the downside, and is still up in what looks to me like “possibly overbought” country. The MACD histogram has also just turned negative, dropping down below the zero line. The one encouraging noted I see here is the fact that the MACD histogram hasn’t gone severely negative at any point in the past year and a half or so of trading.

Gold – Monthly Chart

A look at the monthly gold chart – which shows gold’s price action all the way back to 2017 – is currently showing November shaping up to be the first month since September of 2023 where the price of gold has fallen significantly.

Like the 20-week moving average, the 12-period EMA on the monthly chart is still intact as a price support line – sitting around the $2,400 level. It, thus, indicates the continuation of the long-term uptrend in gold that began approximately two years ago, in October of 2022.

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Both the MACD signal line and the MACD histogram on the monthly chart are still showing firmly bullish momentum. However, they both also look potentially vulnerable to a rollover to the downside. We’ll just have to wait and see on that. I’m not currently putting a lot of weight one way or the other on the indications of the MACD as shown on the monthly chart. I’m much more inclined to monitor the MACD action on the daily and weekly charts.

I’ll conclude my review of gold here by repeating what I noted in last month’s technical analysis – “Should the market experience an extended downturn, one might look for gold to possibly find support around the level of a 50% retracement of the move up from around $2,000 an ounce…”. That would take gold down from its $2,800 high to about the $2,400 level, which, as noted, is right about where the 12-month exponential moving average is currently sitting.

However, I’m still looking for support to possibly be found about $100 higher – around the key $2,500 level, the price level from which gold enjoyed its most recent surge to new record highs.

‍Silver – Most Recent Price Action

So, what does the silver market look like this bright, sunny Thursday morning? (It’s pouring down rain here, and definitely dark and dreary.)

Okay, I am going to review the daily, weekly, and monthly silver charts. But, before I do that, let me just skip to the end and say that what I see as the single most important technical indicator for silver at the moment is the fact that the recent downturn has not dropped the price back below the key $30 per ounce current support/former resistance price level. The most recent price action has only taken silver prices back down to around the $30.50 level, the same price where it found support in early October.

I’m talking in reference to daily closing prices here – there has been, just this morning, prior to the New York open, a spike down to around $29.75, but the market has already recovered by nearly a dollar, almost all the way back up to the $30.50 level. It’s quite possible that we could end up seeing a hammer up candlestick formation today, with a very, very long downside tail. I’d interpret that bullishly.

This could turn out to be a critical day in silver’s price action if after spiking nearly a dollar lower, silver manages to close the day positively or at least back above its opening price.

All right, let’s look at the daily silver futures chart, applying our customary 20-day exponential moving average to it. The past 30 days of price action has taken the market from $31.50 up to $35, before suffering its current post-election fall back down closer to the $30 an ounce price range.

Silver futures price October 16^th :  $32.27
Silver futures price November 14^th :  $30.45

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It’s plain to see that, like gold, silver has slumped back significantly below the 20-day moving average. That average is currently sitting about a dollar and a half above the current market price – at approximately $31.90. It also looks pretty clear (to my bleary eyes anyway), that silver is at a key price level. This $30.00 to $30.50 price range supported the market in both September and October. So, will it survive as support in the post-election precious metals blues? – We’ll have to wait and see, but I think the odds of silver being able to maintain itself above $30 per ounce are good, simply based on silver demand increasing on every side, including – 

• India and China buying tons of silver
• Russia announcing that it will be adding substantial amounts of silver to its financial reserves

…while I don’t see any reports of silver supply – already in shortfall – increasing by any significant amount.

Spinning our lens over to the 50-day moving average – which currently sits at about $31.60 – also shows silver having taken a bearish turn. However, a glance back across the whole of the chart shows that the most recent previous dip below the 50-day EMA was followed by a rally to the recently notched near-term highs.

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The MACD signal line and histogram have both rolled over into indicating decidedly bearish momentum. However, like the price of silver itself, they’ve turned so sharply lower in such a short span of time that I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them level out a bit – or perhaps even turn back toward the bull side - in fairly short order.

Long-term Technical Analysis of Silver

Taking a look at the weekly silver futures chart with a 50-week EMA applied to it doesn’t paint such a dreary picture for silver bulls. The current price action, even with the recent $4 decline, is still taking place well above the 50-period moving average, which is now up to about $28.60. The weekly chart also doesn’t show a violation of an uptrend line that one might draw across the weekly silver lows from back in February of this year.

Looking at the weekly chart does give us a clue that – should silver suffer a more severe smackdown, with price dropping substantially back below $30 an ounce – the next likely support level may be found in the $28 to $28.50 range.

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The MACD signal line and MACD histogram on the weekly chart have only just started to take on a bearish tone. Although the MACD signal line is still fairly far up in positive territory, I see the MACD’s indication as pretty much a neutral one at this point.

Silver – Monthly Chart

Wrapping things up, let’s take a look at the monthly silver futures chart, applying, as usual, the 12-period exponential moving average.

Despite silver’s post-election drop down after rising to about $35 an ounce and taking out its previously notched 2021 highs, the monthly chart of silver still looks pretty solid for silver bulls. Silver is trading well above the 12-month EMA, which is sitting around $28.60 – virtually identical to where the 50-period moving average sits on the weekly chart. That’s a good two dollars below the current silver price, but about 50 cents higher than where that moving average was sitting this time last month.

This coincidence of weekly and monthly moving averages – which we also saw last month – again indicates that the $28 to $28.50 price range might provide some pretty solid support if silver prices should fall back below the $30 level.

In addition, the monthly chart, like the weekly chart, still shows an overall long-term uptrend intact.

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The MACD signal line and the MACD histogram on the monthly chart are both still showing bullish momentum, but I’m not paying a lot of attention to that. The drawdown in precious metals prices is too recent to have significantly impacted the MACD readings on a monthly basis. Still, I’d prefer seeing bullish, rather than bearish, momentum indications.

Gold and Silver Post-Election Technical Analysis – Conclusion

All right, I opened this month’s technical analysis review by noting that, in the wake of Trump’s Presidential election victory, gold and silver prices – predictably enough – took a hit. Again, the market apparently thinks that the US dollar’s fiscal house will be in better order with Trump in charge.

But the long-term question becomes, “Can anything that Trump might do ultimately stop the steady decline in value of fiat currencies such as the US dollar?” I don’t know. Maybe. But that $35 trillion debt albatross hovering over the US Treasury isn’t just going to disappear, no matter what well-founded fiscal steps President Trump’s Administration might take. I think that fact underpins gold prices and, ultimately, sends them higher.

It’s also worth noting that one possible major move aimed at dealing with all that debt is a return to the gold standard. And along with that fact, I’m keeping in mind the fact that a strong candidate to head up the Federal Reserve under Trump is Judy Shelton, a long-time advocate of the US re-adopting a gold standard. And if that scenario unfolds, I’d envision the prices of gold and silver going through the proverbial roof.

A final factor that I see continuing to support precious metals prices is that I don’t see anything about a Trump Presidency that is likely to curb the voracious gold buying by central banks all across the globe. I see that demand, coupled with the huge ongoing shortfall of mining supply in silver versus the current demand for silver, being more than strong enough to sustain a continuing bull market for both gold and silver.

All in all, I think that these overall fundamentals will continue supporting gold and silver prices and, ultimately, driving them higher. For the moment, I’m viewing this post-election pullback as being just what we commonly call “a temporary corrective downside retracement” in an overall long-term bull market. Nothing just goes straight up forever. To change that overall view, I’d have to see much steeper declines in gold and silver prices, and see those declines maintained over a substantial period of time. In other words, I’d have to see very clear and strong technical indications of an overall downtrend before I’d change my long-term opinion on the gold and silver markets.

I want to repeat a couple of notes from my analysis last month:

1. I’m continuing to monitor the gold-to-silver ratio, where I expect to eventually see a significant decline from its current level around 83-to-1, probably down to a ratio of 50-to-1 or lower.
2. The seasonal tendency is for precious metals to finish the year bullishly as we slide into Christmas. I’ll, of course, be watching to see if that seasonal tendency holds up this year.

Having said all that, here’s where I see support and resistance currently for the gold market:

Gold Support Price Levels

1. $2,575 to $2,600 – support may form in this area based on a couple of things – the 20-period moving average on the weekly chart, which is right around $2,580 – and the fact that a drop to around $2,575 would fill a gap left back in mid-September
2. $2,500-$2,525 – this is the price level where gold prices consolidated during August and September

As far as technical resistance levels, the logical ones at this point are – 

Gold Resistance Price Levels

1. $2,700 – around the current 20-day EMA
2. $2,800 – all-time high
3. $3,000

Above the recently set all-time high price of $2,800 lies the frequently talked about price target of $3,000.

And what about silver? Well, let’s first take a look at where I had pegged support for silver last month.

Last month’s price support pegs – 

Silver Price Support Levels

1. $31
2. $30.50
3. $30

Well, that’s right about where we are. So where do I see support now?

Silver Price Support Levels

4. $30 to $30.50 – based on recent price action and the fact that the $30 price level has already been identified as a key support/resistance line
5. $28 to $28.50 – previous market support level
6. I’ll eat my hat if silver maintains closing prices below $28 an ounce any time in the near future

Sure, silver can get knocked back down below $30 per ounce, especially on just an intraday level, but I wouldn’t expect any move below that $30 level to dip very far or to be maintained for more than a day or two.

I’m pegging price resistance levels for silver as follows:

Silver Price Resistance Levels

1. $31.50 – approximately the 50-week and 12-month moving averages
2. $32.00 – approximately the 20-day moving average
3. $33 to $35 – the most recently scored market highs

That’s my view of things in gold and silver, as of Thursday, November 14^th – see you back here next month for a fresh look at the precious metals market – when, hopefully, we’ll be looking at higher, rather than lower, prices.

(Closing note: Repeating an observation I made last month: Despite any positive notes for the US dollar under a Trump Presidency, gold prices still rose significantly during Trump’s previous term as President.)

As usual, thanks to our friends at TradingView.com for their charting services.

• J.B. Maverick

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Sources:

https://www.tradingview.com/

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/ballots-bullion-examining-us-elections-effect-gold

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